Pernod Ricard opened its 2027 fiscal year with first-quarter net sales of €2.234 billion, an organic decline of 0.9%. The weak spots were the United States, down 10%, and China, down 25%, and the company attributed both mainly to inventory adjustments. Asia and the rest of the world grew 9%, led by India at close to 20%, while Europe fell 6%. Pernod expects organic sales to be broadly stable this year and only low single digit growth through fiscal 2029.
The number I focus on is the gap between Pernod and the market. Shanken News Daily puts the total US spirits market down 2% and bottled spirits down 4%. When a major supplier falls 10% in a market that is down 2% to 4%, most of the difference is wholesalers drawing down stock. In practice, distributors want to hold fewer weeks of inventory and tie up less cash in it.
That matters for anyone importing into North America. At Grus Drinks we import and distribute premium wine in New York and Toronto, and the lesson I take is that the middle of the chain has become more careful. Distributors and buyers want labels that sell through quickly, not cases parked in a warehouse. For a smaller importer that is an opening: a focused portfolio, tighter allocations and faster reorders fit the way buyers want to work now.
The other signal is where growth is coming from. Pernod's best results came from India, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, not from its traditional strongholds. The large groups will spend the next few years adjusting to slower Western markets. Independent importers who stay close to retailers and restaurants, and who manage stock with discipline, are well placed for that period.