The headline from America's wine and spirits wholesalers this week was stabilization, but the number I would pin above every importer's desk is buried lower in the report: the distribution system is still carrying far more stock than it can sell at a normal pace. That means the squeeze on wine listings will continue into 2027 even if the holidays go well. For anyone bringing wine into the US, the winning move now is a shorter list of labels with proven pull, not more listings placed in hope of a rebound.
Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America released its SipSource holiday outlook on October 28, built on depletion data that wholesalers report directly. Core spirits volume fell 2.5% over the latest three months against a year earlier, an improvement on the 4.1% decline over 12 months. Wine is in worse shape, with 12-month volume down 8.0%. Both categories get easier comparisons this quarter, because holiday 2025 was weak: spirits fell 5.5% and wine 9.4%. A few spirits segments have turned positive, led by Irish whiskey at 6.6%, tequila at 2.5% and cordials at 1.4%.
Inside wine, Champagne, Prosecco and sauvignon blanc are still leading. Among wines at $9 and up, 12-month revenue grew 8.1% for white blends, 6.4% for malbec and 4.5% for sauvignon blanc, while merlot fell 12.4%, zinfandel 8.7% and red blends 8.2%. Bottles at $16 and above are holding up, and wines under $13 remain the biggest drag. Bars and restaurants are doing better than stores, with on-premise revenue down 2.5% over 12 months through September against 5.6% for off-premise. Wholesale inventories are 4.5% lower than a year ago, yet the inventory-to-sales ratio sits at 1.63, against a typical 1.13 between 1992 and 2006. SipSource expects retailers to keep tightening shelf space and all three tiers to keep cutting stock.
That ratio deserves the arithmetic. Subtract 1.13 from 1.63 and you get 0.50, and 0.50 divided by 1.13 is about 0.44. In plain words, the wholesale tier is holding roughly 44% more inventory for every unit of sales than it did in that long benchmark period. A 4.5% cut over a year barely moves that gap. As long as it stays open, distributors have every reason to resist new SKUs and to drop the slow sellers first, and in this market slow sellers are mostly wine.
The channel numbers point the same way. Off-premise revenue is falling at 5.6% against 2.5% for bars and restaurants, which is about 2.2 times the rate of decline. A brand that depends on retail shelves is competing in the channel that is shrinking fastest and that retailers themselves are trimming. A brand that earns its place on wine lists is selling where the drinker is still showing up and still paying for a good bottle.
This is how I think about Grus Drinks, where we import and distribute premium wine in New York and Toronto. A ratio like 1.63 tells me to bring in fewer labels, in quantities a distributor can move without adding to the pile, and to lead with the styles the data rewards: sparkling, fresh whites and wines above the $16 line. It also puts the importer in a firmer position with producers, because the seller who can show depletion is the one who gets listed.
There is a link to something I wrote on October 30. The European Commission's figures showed EU wine exports to the US down 5% in value through August. US wine depletions are down 8% in volume over 12 months. The measures differ, value against cases, but the comparison suggests European wine is still arriving faster than Americans are drinking it, which helps keep the system heavy with stock. The holiday quarter will show whether that gap starts to close. I expect it to narrow slowly, not snap shut, and I am planning for that.