Tequila's latest control-state numbers tell me the category is still winning shoppers but losing pricing power, and those are two very different kinds of health. When cases grow twice as fast as dollars, the bottle in the basket is getting cheaper. A brand owner who reads September as a recovery is reading the wrong line of the report.
Vinetur reported on November 3 that the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association counted 600,260 nine-liter cases of tequila sold in US control states in September, a 9.5% rise on a year earlier. Retail value grew only 4.6%, to $199.18 million. Over the 12 months to September, volume was up 3.0% while value fell 1.3%.
Two details soften the headline. Labor Day landed on September 7 this year against September 1 in 2025, which pulled holiday selling into the month for every spirits category; total control-state spirits volume rose 3.2% and dollars 1.4%. And against August, tequila added 7,812 cases yet took in $2.20 million less. More liquid moved, and less money came back with it.
The source does not put a price on a case, so I worked it out. September revenue of $199.18 million over 600,260 cases is about $332 per case. August, rebuilt from the same report, was $201.38 million over 592,448 cases, or about $340. That is roughly $8 less per case in a single month, a drop of 2.4%. Against last September the decline is larger: value growth of 4.6% divided across volume growth of 9.5% means each case earned about 4.5% less than a year ago, and the 12-month figures give a similar 4.2%. Three different windows, the same direction.
A few days ago I wrote about Espolòn growing 16.2% in control states through August on a 200 ml bottle and an easy, unpretentious pitch. Put that next to these numbers and a pattern appears. Smaller formats, value brands and promotions all add cases faster than they add dollars. I do not think that is a sign of weakness in the drinker. It is a sign that the drinker is exploring on a budget, buying more often and spending less each time. The category is still recruiting people. It is just recruiting them at a lower ticket.
That shift matters to how we run MezcalSearch. The app exists to help people find and compare tequila and mezcal bottles before they buy, and the question we see behind most searches is not which bottle is the most prestigious but which one is worth the money for a specific occasion. A shopper who is trading down on price still wants to feel sure about the choice. That is where discovery earns its keep: when the average spend per case is falling, the brands that hold their price will be the ones a curious buyer can understand quickly, not the ones with the loudest launch.
My read for producers and importers is simple. Do not budget next year on September's 9.5%. Budget on the revenue per case, watch whether the $8 monthly slide repeats in October, and treat any premium launch as something that has to justify itself on the shelf, one bottle at a time. Volume is buying time for tequila. Price is where the next year will be decided.